IB Predicted Grades: Everything Students and Families Need to Know
IB predicted grades are the teacher’s estimate of the grade a student is most likely to receive in each Diploma Program subject after completing all assessment components, including coursework and exams. In other words, they represent the grade the teacher believes the IB will award the student. Understanding how they work, how they are calculated, and what role they play in college applications is essential for any IB student and their family.
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What are IB Predicted Grades?
Predicted grades are the teacher’s professional prediction of the final grade the student will receive from the IB in each subject. They are assigned on a scale of 1 to 7 per subject, with 7 being the highest grade. For Theory of Knowledge (TOK) and the Extended Essay, predicted grades are assigned on a scale of A to E, with A being the highest grade.
However, it is important to understand that predicted grades are not final grades, but rather informed estimates. The IB itself acknowledges that accurately predicting grades is difficult, because student performance is not always consistent throughout the program.
How do Teachers Calculate Predicted Grades?
IB teachers follow a rigorous, evidence-based process to determine predicted grades. According to the official IB guide on predicted grades (IBO, 2024), the process is based on several pillars.
Grading descriptors: the primary resource
The starting point are grade descriptors that the IB publishes for each subject group. These descriptors define the characteristics of typical performance at each grade level, from 1 to 7. Teachers compare samples of student work with these descriptors and determine which one best matches the quality of the work produced.
In fact, it is common for a student’s work to exhibit characteristics of more than one grade level. In that case, the teacher should look for the descriptor that best fits the work as a whole, not an exact match. If you’re still unsure how the IB grading system works, we recommend starting with that guide.
Multiple sources of evidence: not just one exam or one assignment
The intended grade should be based on the student’s work as a whole, not just on their best or worst results. Sources of evidence that schools should consider include:
- Class Exercises and Assignments
- Coursework, including the IB internal assessment, which accounts for 20% of the final grade in most science and math courses
- Mock exams, which are required as evidence for subjects in Groups 1 through 5 of the DP
Mock exams must be administered under actual exam conditions to ensure the authenticity of the work and to prepare students for the final exams.
Student Progress: Do not penalize students for material that has not yet been taught
At the time predictions are made, not all course topics may have been covered. The IB explicitly states that teachers should not predict lower grades simply because the body of work is incomplete. Instead, they should:
- Focus on comparing the merits of the completed work to the grading descriptors
- Use their teaching experience to estimate the level of performance the student is likely to demonstrate by the end of the course, keeping in mind that the student’s understanding will improve as they are able to connect all the content
Historical data and IB distribution
Predictions must also be based on data. The IB provides each school with an individual distribution of predicted grades by subject, based on that school’s results from previous exam sessions. Here are some key points about this distribution:
- Schools may deviate from the distribution if there are justified reasons, for example, if the school’s context has changed significantly or if there are exceptional students
- The IB reserves the right to request evidence to support predicted grades in exceptional circumstances
- If the school is new or is entering students in a subject for the first time, the IB will not have historical data and will not provide a distribution; in that case, teachers assign the grade they consider to be the most reasonable representation of the student’s ability.
When are Predicted Grades Released?
Predicted grades are released at various times throughout the Diploma Program, and it is important for families to understand that there is no single date.
During DP1 (first year), many schools share preliminary or indicative predictions at the end of the school year, usually in June or July, based on the end-of-year exams administered by the school itself and on the work accumulated up to that point (class exercises, homework, and course assignments). These DP1 predictions are not sent to the IB or to universities, but they serve as an initial reference for students and their families to gauge where their grades are headed and to make strategic decisions before starting DP2.
During DP2 (second year), the predictions that really matter for college applications and the IB are released at two different times:
- Fall of DP2 (September–October): Schools prepare the predicted grades that will accompany college applications. These are the grades entered into UCAS, the Common Application, or the application materials sent directly to universities. This timeline is not set by the IB, but rather by the deadlines of each admissions system.
- DP2 Spring: The IB opens the screens for entering official predicted grades on its IBIS platform in January (for the May session) or in July (for the November session), three months before the written exams. The deadline for entering them is April or October, respectively. These are the predictions that the IB uses in its grading meetings.
It is important to note that university deadlines are usually earlier than the IB dates.
In the United Kingdom: the UCAS deadline for applications to Oxford and Cambridge is mid-October; for most other British universities, it is late January. This means that schools prepare university placement predictions before the official IB deadline.
United States: For students who want to study in the United States, the timeline is different: predicted grades are typically included in the School Report that the guidance counselor submits through the Common Application between October and December. Later in this article, we explain in detail how predicted grades work in the U.S. admissions process.
In Spain: the situation is different. Spanish public universities base admission on the final IB Diploma score, not on predicted grades. Students must first earn the full Diploma and then apply for accreditation through UNEDasiss, which converts the IB score to the Spanish university admission scale. Predicted grades do not replace the Diploma or official accreditation. Spanish private universities, on the other hand, may have their own early admission processes in which predicted grades do play a role, so it is advisable to check directly with each institution.
Are IB Predicted Grades and University admission Scores the Same?
Not necessarily. The IB states that the predictions submitted to the IB and those submitted to universities are separate processes, and it is common for families to be unaware of this distinction.
Those submitted to the IB (via IBIS)
The predicted grade that the school enters into the IBIS platform must always be the teacher’s closest estimate of the grade the student will receive from the IB. The IB is explicit: no other considerations should influence this prediction, and predicted grades should not be inflated to please students or families. The IB uses these predictions in its grade award meetings to analyze the cohort and identify discrepancies. In a typical exam session, these predictions are not used to determine a student’s final grade.
Those sent to universities (UCAS, Common App, or other channels)
According to the official IB document, the predicted grades that schools send to universities or other organizations must be handled separately from the IB’s own predictions. The IB itself acknowledges that they may differ for two reasons:
- Different timing: Universities typically request predicted grades earlier than the IB (for example, in September–October for UCAS, compared to April for IBIS), and in the meantime, new evidence of the student’s work may become available
- Different purpose: The IB requires the most accurate estimate possible; universities and other organizations have their own requirements, which do not necessarily align with what the IB asks for
What does this mean for families?
If the prediction listed on the college application (submitted in October) differs from the one the school enters into IBIS (in April), it is not necessarily an error. It may simply mean that the teacher updated their estimate based on new evidence—better results on mock exams, stronger coursework—or that the school manages both processes using different criteria, something the IB explicitly allows.
How do UK Universities Use Predicted Grades?
In the United Kingdom, predicted grades are a central pillar of the admissions process. British universities—such as the University of Oxford and the University of Edinburgh—make conditional offers based on these predictions, since final IB results are released in July, after offers have already been made. A typical conditional offer specifies a minimum total score on the IB Diploma along with minimum scores in one or two Higher Level (HL) courses. For example, many universities in the United Kingdom require Advanced Algebra at the Higher Level for engineering, physics, or economics programs, so the expected grade in that course can be particularly decisive.
Predicted grades are entered directly into the UCAS application, and universities use them to assess whether a student meets the academic requirements, compare applicants, select students for interviews, and determine the terms of the offer. If the student’s final grades meet the requirements, the offer is confirmed.
How do Predicted Grades Work at U.S. Universities?
In the U.S., IB predicted grades are part of a holistic evaluation in which colleges consider the student’s complete profile, not just the predictions. Predictions are typically included in the School Report that the school counselor submits through the Common Application, usually between October and December of the student’s senior year.
Unlike in the United Kingdom, U.S. universities do not typically make conditional offers based on predicted grades. Instead, they evaluate the student as a whole:
- Expected IB Scores and Academic Transcript
- Letters of recommendation
- Personal statements
- Extracurricular activities
- SAT scores (when required or recommended by the university)
Is the SAT required to apply to U.S. universities from the IB program?
At the most selective universities, the vast majority of admitted students submit SAT scores even when they are not required. For IB students aiming for competitive U.S. universities, combining strong predicted grades with a good SAT score often significantly strengthens their application.
At EPIC Prep, we’ve been preparing students for the SAT since 2010, in addition to offering specialized tutoring for the IB. If you’re planning to apply to U.S. colleges, check out our SAT prep course , and we’ll design a plan tailored to your timeline and goals.
Call us and find out why our students have been achieving their goals since 2010.
Why is it Important for Predicted Grades to be Accurate?
The accuracy of predicted grades has direct consequences for students. According to the IB:
- If the prediction is too high: it can create expectations that lead to disappointment when the actual grade is lower, and it may result in the student enrolling in college courses for which they are not prepared
- If the prediction is too low: it may demotivate some students and may lead them to enroll in courses that are not challenging enough for them
That is why the IB insists that predicted grades should not be inflated to please students or families, nor should they be lowered as a motivational tool. The goal is always to provide an estimate that is as close as possible to the actual grade.
The IB also uses internally predicted grades to:
- Analyze the overall strength of the cohort and the grade distributions by course during grade award meetings
- Identify significant discrepancies between predicted and actual grades, which may trigger additional quality control measures
In a typical exam period, predicted grades are not used to determine a student’s final grade, even if the student is unable to take the exams. This is an important distinction that many families are unaware of.
Can Students Influence Their Predicted IB Scores?
Yes, students can directly influence their predicted grades by improving their performance on the sources of evidence that teachers use to make these predictions: in-class exercises, homework, course assignments, and mock exams. Mock exams are particularly important because they are a required source of evidence for subjects in Groups 1 through 5 of the DP.
Some specific actions:
- Prepare thoroughly for the mock exams: they are administered under actual exam conditions, and teachers should take them into account when predicting your grade
- Submitting high-quality course assignments: These are part of the body of evidence that the teacher evaluates against the IB grading descriptors.
- Demonstrate steady progress: The IB states that teachers should consider the student’s overall progress, not just a single point in time
- Talk to your teacher about your performance: The IB recommends that teachers have direct conversations with students, comparing their current performance with what the teacher believes they are capable of achieving; this conversation is an opportunity to understand what you need to improve
Students cannot ask for their grades to be inflated—the IB explicitly prohibits this—but they can ensure that the evidence the teacher has before them reflects their best work.
Can you take a mock exam more than once?
The IB does not regulate this matter, because mock exams are organized by the school, not by the IB. The decision on whether or not to allow a second sitting depends entirely on each school’s policy.
What the IB does establish is that the mock exam is just one piece of the body of evidence: teachers should consider multiple sources of performance and look for the grading descriptor that best fits the student’s overall work, rather than basing their prediction on a single result. If a mock exam did not go well, the student can improve their standing by submitting strong coursework and demonstrating progress in the other assessments.
What Should you do if you Disagree with Your Predicted Grades?
If a student believes that their predicted grades do not reflect their ability, they should first speak with the course teacher. The IB recommends that schools that share predictions with students have an appeal process in place that allows students to request a review of the evidence of their performance.
It is important to keep in mind that IB grade predictions should not be inflated to please students or families. The IB explicitly states this. The goal is for the prediction to be as accurate as possible, because accuracy benefits the student in the long run.
How Can EPIC Prep Help with IB Predicted Scores?
At EPIC Prep, we work with students throughout the entire Diploma Program—from DP1 through the final DP2 exams—to ensure that their performance consistently reflects the quality they deserve in their predicted grades. Our approach focuses on strengthening the very sources of evidence that teachers use to make their predictions, but it goes even further: we support students in all academic aspects of the IB that may influence their academic path and college choices.
The areas in which we offer support include:
- Subject-Specific Tutoring: personalized support in any IB science course, tailored to the student’s level (HL or SL) and the IB grading criteria, to ensure consistent performance in class and on assignments starting in the first year.
- Internal Assessments (IA): guidance on choosing a topic, designing the research, analyzing data, and writing the report, which accounts for 20% of the final grade in all science courses.
- Preparation for mock exams: specific practice using the actual exam format, since mock exams are a required source of evidence for grade predictions in subjects in Groups 1 through 5.
- Preparation for final exams: review strategies, practice exams, and mastery of IB terminology so that students are fully prepared for the May or November exams.
These are just a few of the ways we work with our students. Every family has a different situation—subjects that are more challenging, approaching college deadlines, questions about choosing between HL and SL—and our team adapts to what each student needs at every stage. Every IB preparation program at EPIC begins by getting to know the student: their current level, their goals, and the time they have available. From there, we design a customized program. Find out how our IB tutoring course.
Frequently Asked Questions About IB Predicted Grades
On what scale are the expected grades assigned?
Predicted grades for DP courses are assigned on a scale of 1 to 7, with 7 being the highest grade. For Theory of Knowledge (TOK) and theExtended Essay, the scale ranges from A to E, with A being the highest grade. Both scales are defined in the official IB guide on predicted grades.
Are the predicted grades the university receives the same as those sent to the IB?
Not necessarily, because the IB stipulates that the predictions submitted through IBIS must be the closest estimate of the grade the student will receive from the IB, and for no other purpose. The predictions sent to universities are handled separately and may differ, because they are requested at different times and serve different purposes.
Are predicted grades used to calculate the final grade during a regular exam period?
No. In a normal exam session, predicted grades are not used to determine a student’s final grade, even if the student is unable to take the exams. The IB uses them at its grade award meetings as a source of information about the cohort, but the final grade is determined by exams and internal assessments.
Can predicted grades be changed once they have been entered?
Yes, predictions can be updated as new evidence of the student’s work becomes available. However, once they have been submitted through UCAS or the Common Application, the deadlines and procedures of each platform determine whether it is possible to modify them. On UCAS, predictions cannot be changed after the application is submitted. On the Common App, the counselor can submit updated information through the Mid-Year Report.
We hope this article has answered your questions. If you have any questions about your preparation, please contact us and we will be happy to explain how EPIC Prep can help you achieve your goals.
